In Bangkok and Its Shadows, Housing Hums
The metro-area market is faring better than it did a year ago as the economy gathers steam and work on mass transit lines moves forward, writes Kanana Katharangsiporn
The residential property sector in Greater Bangkok is set to sprint along throughout the year, with growth of 11.7% in the number of newly registered units and 9.7% in new transfers, buoyed by an expanding economy and state investment in infrastructure, says the Real Estate Information Center (REIC).
The centre’s acting director-general, Vichai Viratkapan, says Greater Bangkok’s residential market in the first half rose compared with the same period last year, due to positive signs in economic growth, exports and tourism.
Market sentiment was also boosted by government spending on various megaprojects, such as new mass transit lines and extensions in Bangkok and the high-speed railway linking three major airports (Don Mueang, Suvarnabhumi and U-tapao).
“Demand and supply in the second half will continue growing,” Mr Vichai says. “New supply being launched in the second half will rise by 23% from the same period last year and 21% from the first half.”
The number of newly registered units in the second half will increase by 11.3% from the same period last year, he says, with growth of 16.2% from the first half.
Despite new residential transfers in the second half declining by 8.3% in number and 16.9% in value compared with the same period last year, figures for the whole year will remain in growth mode, up 9.2% in number and 7.5% in value from 2017.
Mr Vichai expects 5.9% growth in new home loans in 2018 to 367 billion baht. The first half saw 19.4% growth to 173 billion baht.
Low-rise houses (including single detached houses, duplex houses, townhouses and shophouses) in Greater Bangkok remained in higher demand than condos as the number and value of low-rise houses transferred in the first half outstripped the respective condo figures.
If classified by provinces, however, only Bangkok saw condos outperform low-rise houses in terms of both number and value, says Surachet Kongcheep, marketing research and positioning director at property developer Risland Thailand Co.
“New supply of low-rise housing launched in Bangkok has declined for more than seven years, as land prices have been so high that low-rise development is no longer feasible,” he says.
Mr Surachet says low-rise house projects launched in Bangkok during recent years were small in scale, with a low number of units. Instead, developers are opting to launch large-scale projects in Bangkok’s neighbouring provinces.
“When the amount of new supply is low, the amount changing hands is low,” he says.
In the first half of 2018, transfers of all residential units in Greater Bangkok totalled 91,966 units worth 256.78 billion baht, up 33% and 40% from the same period last year.
Of this amount, 57,298 units worth 183.17 billion baht were newly completed or those transferred from developers, up 25.6% and 43.5% year-on-year.
Second-hand units or those transferred from individual owners totalled 34,668 worth 73.61 billion baht, up 26.5% and 32.5%.
MASS TRANSIT KEY
The top five locations with the largest amount of new condo supply launched in Greater Bangkok in the first half were along either existing or new mass transit lines. Most units were one-bedroom and priced at 2 million to 3 million baht, the REIC reported.
Leading the list was Huai Khwang-Chatuchak-Din Daeng, with 9,205 units worth 42.58 billion baht. In second place was Thon Buri between Saphan Taksin and Bang Wa skytrain stations and along the Blue Line extension from Hua Lamphong to Bang Khae, with 4,828 units worth 13.6 billion baht.
Bang Sue and Dusit came third with 2,029 units worth 8.1 billion baht, driven by the Purple Line and the Blue Line extension from Hua Lamphong to Tao Poon. This area was the only one in which most new condo supply was launched at prices of 3 million to 5 million baht.
In fourth was Samut Prakan with 1,809 units worth 4.17 billion baht, as the extension of the Light Green Line between Samrong and Samut Prakan is under construction.
Despite a large amount of condo supply launched in the past few years remaining unsold, Nonthaburi ranked fifth with 1,781 units worth 4 billion baht.
According to the REIC, four out of the top five locations with the largest number of low-rise houses launched in Greater Bangkok in the first half were in other provinces.
Samut Prakan led the market with 3,554 units worth 12.85 billion baht, followed by Lam Luk KaKhlong Luang-Thanyaburi-Nong Sua in Pathum Thani with 2,531 units worth 7.35 billion baht.
In third was Bang Kruai-Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Sai Noi in Nonthaburi with 1,430 units worth 6.1 billion baht. Bang Khen-Sai Mai-Don Muang-Lak Si in Bangkok came fourth with 1,218 units worth 8.73 billion baht. Fifth place was Muang Pathum Thani-Lat Lum Kaew-Sam Kok in Pathum Thani with 1,160 units worth 4.37 billion baht.
The offerings in all five locations were townhouses.
The largest number of newly launched units priced between 2 million and 3 million baht were in Samut Prakan and Pathum Thani; between 3 million and 5 million baht, in Nonthaburi; and between 5 million and 7 million baht, in Bangkok.
“Newly launched units in Nonthaburi saw higher prices because the Purple Line runs through,” Mr Vichai says. “In locations in Bangkok, the extension of the Light Green Line from Mor Chit to Ku Kot, as well as the Pink Line (Kae Rai-Min Buri), are under construction.”
According to a market survey by the REIC, the amount of new residential supply launched in the first half dropped by 26.7% to 40,526 units versus the same period last year. Value fell by 20% year-on-year to 168.32 billion baht.
Both condo and low-rise supply saw significant drops in numbers and value.
New condo supply totalled 25,252 units, down 17%, worth 100.5 billion baht, down 15.5%.
New supply of low-rise houses saw a larger decline to 15,274 units, down 38.6%, worth 67.83 billion baht, down 25.7%.
“Developers adjusted strategies by slowing down the new launch of residential supply and focused on draining existing stock on hand after they found a large amount of supply newly launched and newly registered,” Mr Vichai says.
Source: Bangkok Post – 17 September 2018