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Resilience of Thai Tourism Post Disaster

By on Sep 23, 2015 in Hotel-Tourism

bangkok property erawan shrine

Thailand has been relying on two routes to promote growth – government spending and tourism. The recent bombing at the shrine in Bangkok has dealt a harsh blow to the tourism industry and therefore puts Thailand into a vulnerable position.

The question is how deep will the impact on tourism be and how long will it last?  According to the Tourism department revenue from foreign tourists was around 1.2 trillion baht in 2014. This equates to almost 10% of all economic activity. In 2010 it was just 5% so it is easy to understand the importance of tourism. China and Russia have been the major sources of growth.

Despite the strong growth it is important to understand Thailand’s tourism industry has already survived several major disasters- Sars in 2003, bird flu in 2005, H5N1 influenza in 2009 and of course the December 2004 tsunami. And then on top of this the political turmoil which can only have been detrimental.

The Ratchaprasong bombing will have an impact on tourism but we believe our analysis shows starting from October conditions should improve markedly. We believe in total we are likely to lose 550,000 tourists or 25 billion baht in revenue, equivalent to just 0.2% of real GDP. It is predicted 40% of the loss will come from Chinese tourists. Sadly Chinese tourists were killed in the bombing and Chinese are know to be sensitive to any local adverse events. It is difficult to accurately assess the impact of this bombing, but the longer it takes the Thai authorities to offer the public some sort of resolution the longer the tourism industry will be effects.

nce the shock subsides, tourism comes back every time and the Ratchaprasong bombing is no different.

For the full article click here. 
Source: Bangkok Post, 4th Septemer 2015

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