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The number of Thai buyers increases in Q3 09

By on Dec 29, 2009 in Research, Residential

Bangkok Residential Sales MarketView Q3 09

For the second consecutive quarter the majority of sales have come from Thai nationals, who are not just looking to be end users but also to be buy to rent investors. Thai purchasers believe that prices have reached the bottom and are going to rise and see property as a reliable investment when compared to equities or the fixed income market. End user purchasers are focusing on projects approaching completion where they can see the end result.

The third quarter continued to post positive sales levels, demand remained strongest in the entry to mid levels (below THB 60,000) with a sales rate of 80% and 89% respectively.

The third quarter of 2009 has seen a slight rise in the number of completed condominium units with 1,015 being built. This brought the total number of condominium stock in the downtown area to 61,522 an increase of 1.7% Q-o-Q and a marked increase of 14.1% Y-O-Y. The increasing condominium supply doesn’t look like stopping with a further 4,854 units planned for completion by the end of 2009.

The overall occupancy rate slightly decreased by 0.4% from 73.4% in Q2 2008 to 73.% in Q3 2009 this is mainly due to the increase in new completed supply.

In Q3 2009 the average asking price of off-plan condominium projects in the high end and above bracket in downtown Bangkok was 122,076 THB/m2 declining from 128,040 THB/m2 or 8% Y-O-Y.

The average achieved re-sale price of units in compled upscale and above units increased by 5.4% Y-O-Y from 103,830 THB/m2 to 109,393 THB/m2.

The construction of the Airport Rail Link (ARL), this is both an airport express and a commuter train that links Phaya Thai to Suvarnabhumi International Airport is now complete. The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) will start one-day trial operations on December 5th 2009; further official trials will run from December 15th to April 2010 before the line’s planned opening. April 2010. Several developers have launched projects around the Airport link and are hoping their developments will mirror the success of condominium projects located along the BTS, however just being located next to a mass transit system is not a prerequisite for success.

Outlook

The amount of new supply due to be completed over the remaining months of 2009 and in 2010 means that the stress test will continue. We will see if developers are able to sell their unsold inventory and if speculative buyers can resell units where they do not want or are unable to make the final payment. The progress on these sales will determine both price levels and when we will see an increase in new launches. The growth in the number of Thai buyers is re-assuring and it will be the appetite of Thai purchasers to buy into buildings that are being completed that will determine the course of the Bangkok condominium market.

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BKK Res.Sales MV

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