CBRE Thailand Mid-Year Outlook

First-Half Performance and the Path Ahead for 2026

CBRE Thailand, the leading international property consultant, has shared the findings of its 2026 mid-year market outlook, revealing that despite global headwinds slowing tourism and industrial land transfers in H1 2026, Thailand’s commercial real estate sectors are maintaining resilience through surging luxury residential launches, experiential retail developments and accelerating AI-driven industrial interest.

Ms. Roongrat Veeraparkkaroon, Managing Director at CBRE Thailand, commented, “As we reflect on the prospects for the second half of the year, we have adjusted our outlook for certain sectors, but broadly our forecasts remain unchanged.”

Retail Sector: Experiential Retail Drives Ongoing Expansion 

The retail landscape in 2026 reflects a continued shift toward experience-driven and community-focused concepts. Key projects this year—including the recent openings of Central Northville and Cloud 11, together with the upcoming opening of Happitat @ The Forestias—highlight developers’ growing emphasis on lifestyle, F&B, wellness and social engagement over traditional retail.

Mega Bangna has also announced its latest expansion plan, investing THB 6 billion in adding more retail space focused on green spaces, active lifestyle offerings and food destinations, along with an additional 1,750 parking spaces. 

In downtown Bangkok, details of the CenTRal cENtrAL project have been formally confirmed. The mixed-use development will comprise retail, office and hotel components, adding another layer of retail, education and entertainment options in the Siam area, consistent with the experiential retail trend.

Beyond new supply, the market is seeing a growing wave of asset enhancements and concept rebranding for both standalone and on-site retail within office buildings, as developers seek to refresh existing properties.

Overall, our forecast of net supply opening in 2026 has been revised down to 170,000 square meters, following postponed openings for The Central Phaholyothin and One Bangkok Phase 2. This downward revision is expected to reduce pressure on occupancy and tenant absorption, resulting in a more balanced near-term outlook.

Hospitality Market: Global Disruptions Continue to Impact the Sector

Global conflicts continue to affect tourism in Thailand, with overall international arrivals down over 3% Y-o-Y as of early July 2026. However, despite surging air travel costs, flight disruption through popular Middle East routes and strong regional competition, hotel rates have held up well, demonstrating the resilience of the Thai hospitality market. Leisure destinations have been less affected than city hotels.

The outlook for the remainder of the year points to a gradual improvement in travel sentiment as airfares normalize. We also expect adjustments to visa-free and visa-on-arrival policies targeting key nationalities, along with travel incentives to support the domestic hospitality market.

Residential Condominium Market: Adapting to Changing Demand

As expected, the residential market saw a significant increase in new launches compared to the same period last year, with 2,380 units launched in downtown Bangkok (up 207% Y-o-Y) and 8,982 units launched in the midtown and suburban markets (up 46% Y-o-Y).

The luxury and super-luxury segments continued to outperform the broader Bangkok market. Demand from international buyers remained resilient, driven by growing interest from buyers based in the Middle East, Japan and Russia. These buyers are primarily seeking lifestyle properties, second homes and long-term investment opportunities.

For 2026, our condominium launch forecast remains unchanged. The focus in downtown Bangkok during the second half will be primarily on super-luxury branded residence projects, reflecting developer confidence in the premium segment—where affluent buyers continue to seek high-quality developments in prime locations, many managed by international hospitality brands.

Low-Rise Housing: Developers Adapt to Challenging Market Conditions

The volume of new low-rise housing unit launches in the first half of 2026 aligned with the same period last year, recording 4,584 units compared to 4,457 units last year (up 2.8% Y-o-Y). Approximately 90% of this supply originated from well-established developers, while most other developers focused on clearing unsold inventory.

Demand within the luxury segment remained consistent, though suburban areas within the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) experienced slower sales velocity.

Despite a continuous rise in unsold inventory since 2014, emerging signs indicate a slowdown in its accumulation. With limited new supply across consecutive periods, developers are successfully adapting to challenging market conditions.

Office Market: Finding the Balance between Quality and Value

The first half of 2026 recorded several notable office relocations and expansions across Bangkok, highlighting continued demand from occupiers seeking high-quality workspace. Major completed transactions were concentrated in top-tier buildings in the core CBD. 

While leasing activity remained healthy, inquiry trends shifted noticeably during the period, with greater emphasis placed on total occupancy costs. We are seeing stronger demand for office developments that offer modern specifications at competitive rental levels.

Looking ahead to H2 2026, we expect the market to remain active, but new leasing transaction volume will be more balanced as many landlords offer attractive renewal packages to retain existing tenants. Newly completed developments in non-CBD locations are attracting strong interest by offering modern facilities and competitive rental packages as a viable alternative to premium CBD office space. As corporate occupiers continue to focus on cost optimization and workplace efficiency, we expect value-driven leasing decisions to remain a defining market trend throughout the second half of 2026. 

Overall, our future supply and rental forecasts remain unchanged, though net take-up may fall short of our initial projections if more tenants are persuaded to renew rather than relocate.

Industrial and Logistics Sector: Strong Investment Pipeline with More Normalized Land Demand

The industrial sector continues to attract strong investor interest. Foreign direct investment (FDI) applications surged and are already approaching the total value recorded for the whole of 2025, indicating a substantial pipeline of proposed investments entering the market. However, the total value of Board of Investment (BOI) approvals declined on a Y-o-Y basis—including within the digital sector—suggesting that while investment intentions remain strong, project approvals and implementation are becoming more selective.

Despite the strong investment pipeline, industrial land transfers have slowed compared with the exceptionally high levels recorded in 2024–2025, indicating a normalization of demand after the recent peak cycle. Looking ahead, access to a secure and sustained power supply is becoming an increasingly important factor influencing investment decisions and the pace of future land transactions, particularly for data center projects requiring guaranteed electricity capacity.

For the full year, we expect land transfers to reach around 2,800 rai, down 20% from 2025 levels.

Recent demand trends indicate growing interest from companies involved in the artificial intelligence (AI) supply chain and the production of data center equipment, with several operators exploring expansions of existing production lines or establishing new facilities in Thailand. 

Within the logistics sector, footprint consolidation and optimization—often through purpose-built facilities—remain the primary focus in a highly competitive segment.

"Unexpected events are now so frequent that many developers have become resilient and accustomed to adapting to adversity. Inevitably, challenges also create opportunities, rewarding the most agile players as they respond to shifts in demand. We expect the second half of the year to remain active with new project announcements across various sectors of the market,” Ms. Chotika Tungsirisurp, Head of Consulting and Research at CBRE Thailand, concluded.